El Niño changes the tropical Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above it. “Super” is an informal description of a very strong event, rather than a separate official storm category.
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A warm region of the Pacific
The video's opening refers to conditions in September 2026. NOAA's September 17 discussion reports temperature differences above 3°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific.
This value is an anomaly: a difference from the expected temperature for that place and time. It does not mean the sea itself has a temperature of 3°C. It also does not describe the entire Pacific.
The discussion raises the possibility of an event stronger than earlier events in the comparison record since 1950. That is a forecast possibility, not a record that has already occurred.
The normal trade-wind pattern
Trade winds normally push warm surface water west across the tropical Pacific. Warm water accumulates toward Indonesia and Australia.
Colder water rises nearer South America to replace surface water. This process has the name upwelling. The diagram's sloping warm layer represents a difference in the ocean's structure across the basin.
What changes during El Niño
Weaker trade winds allow warm water to spread east. The ocean and atmosphere affect each other, so this involves more than a patch of warm water moving alone.
The video describes the water as moving back across the basin. That image explains the broad change, but does not mean every parcel travels from Indonesia to South America.
Why the rain moves
Warm water supports evaporation and rising moist air. As the warm-water pattern changes, the regions of rising air, clouds, and heavy rain also change.
Some places become wetter while other places become drier. These circulation changes can affect weather far beyond the tropical Pacific.
The forecast probability
NOAA's September 17, 2026 discussion gives a probability above 90 percent for a very strong event during northern autumn and winter. The probability belongs to that dated forecast and its defined period.
It does not guarantee a particular storm, flood, or temperature at your location. Later observations can change the forecast.
The United States comparison
El Niño often favours wetter winter conditions across the southern United States, including parts of California. Northern regions can have milder or drier conditions.
These are broad tendencies. The exact pattern differs between events, and individual cold spells or storms can still occur within an unusual seasonal average.
Ocean heat and global temperature
The ocean exchanges heat with the atmosphere. El Niño can temporarily increase global surface temperature on top of the longer warming trend caused by human activity.
NASA identifies 2016 as a record-warm year at the time of its assessment. NASA later identifies 2024 as another record-warm year. El Niño contributes to short-term variation, but does not explain the long-term trend alone.
The timing also needs care. An annual record can include months during and after an El Niño peak. “After El Niño” is therefore a simple description of a more gradual response.
How long the event lasts
The video discusses persistence into spring 2027. WMO's cited update specifically supports a strong expectation of persistence through February 2027.
NOAA’s September 17 outlook expects substantial weakening during March to May 2027. It also allows a return to neutral conditions later in spring. The seasonal discussion is not a promise that the event maintains one strength until a fixed day.
What this means
Separate the physical mechanism, the observed temperature anomaly, and the forecast probability. These describe different parts of the same climate event.
FAQ
Is super an official extra El Niño category?
No. It is an informal description of an unusually strong event.
Does El Niño make every place wetter?
No. It shifts rainfall patterns, with different effects in different regions.
Does the September forecast describe conditions today?
No. It is a dated outlook. Use current official forecasts for present planning.